Equality of Law Enforcement

This does not come as a surprise, but I am still amazed at the very cautious approach of law enforcement agencies in India to take actions against the politicians, the rich and the famous, which they would have taken without batting an eyelid when it comes to similar crimes committed by ordinary citizens.

It only goes to prove that democracy is unequal – the form of government being a democracy is not a simple basis for anyone to be proud, without belittling the critical importance of democracy in nation development. I have my views on the necessity of firm leadership with eyes on the long-term future of the country, without succumbing to coalition party politics. However, I also realize that for that kind of leadership to emerge is to expect the impossible in today’s hyper-competitive politics – it would have been possible a few decades ago.

Why are government agencies afraid to move quickly and firmly against powerful culprits? Why is the Supreme Court’s intervention often required to push the law enforcement agencies to take action?

The reason lies behind the ability of political powers to impact bureaucratic/administrative appointments and damage the careers of honest and upright officials (who seem to be dwindling by the day). If the “Executive” arm of the government is run by vested political interests, then the citizens cannot expect a better governance. Political interests are driven by the intoxicating mix of power, greed and money, and always remind the Executive branch that the party currently in power needs their support to come back to power in the next elections.

While lobbying happens along with the exercise of money power in the U.S. and Western democracies as well, the blatant misuse of administrative machinery seems to be a specialty of Indian government. The abuse and misuse continues to this date, and I am sure that irrespective of the party or the coalition of parties which would come to power in mid-2014, the situation will more or less remain the same.

This vicious circle of power-politics-money-weak administration is going to continue, unless a very decisive leader comes into play with country’s benefits as the sole criteria for governance. One can only hope such a leader would arrive in the near future, and enforce the equality of law in the eyes of all citizens without it being misused and abused all the time in favour of the rich and the famous.

Let us see!

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
12th May 2013

Freedom Vs Bread

I return to one of my earlier topics on the same/similar subject, because I saw what was happening in Malaysia post the general elections and felt that I should mention my views about the developing scenario over there.

This is not a political blog post and I am not taking sides with any one political party (anywhere). My point is simply that people are yet to attain full widespread, equalized prosperity levels (not the same level for anyone but the difference between the top and the bottom earners is not more than 10:1) in most countries. There is very wide gap which is expanding even in the most developed countries, such as the U.S. During such a phase of development, what is more critical – the ability to strategize together for a faster pace of economic development, or being able to fight for and secure the fullest freedom levels that are possible ? Which effort should take precedence ?

This is not a trivial matter and merits intense discussion amongst peer groups, not just in academia. The ability and competency of a government or a political party to work for the overall widespread economic prosperity of a nation, in my opinion, far outweighs the ability of people to protest and derail any economic gains that a country has already achieved. If a country has already reached USD 10,000 per capita and is well on its way towards meeting the next goal post of USD 15,000 per capita, and the current political dispensation is intensely focused on the same, then why disrupt what is progressing just for the sake of a change ? A change would bring in rather inexperienced politicians to power and would make the economic pace grind down to a very slow pace, while new strategies are being thought through. It would eat up one or two years of crucial time necessary for continued progress.

There are many examples in this world of countries which have lost out due to revolutions – let me avoid naming them. Of course, there are also examples of countries which have come under the influence of dictators who have gone on to rob their countries.

On the other hand there are good examples as well of political parties which think of their countries’ economic prosperity first before anything else. Mistakes will be made by any government, but the intent is crucial for the country’s benefit.

In a nutshell, bread is more critical (even more so in today’s world) than political freedom. Yes, elections are important, issues are challenging, democracy is probably the best form of government, protests are to be encouraged without affecting law and order, etc., etc., But at the end of the day, bread always remains the most crucial part of one’s life – I do not buy the argument that enhanced economic prosperity would lead people to look for more esoteric, psychological satisfaction via political expression – I have only seen prosperous people wanting to make even more money for their and their childrens’ future security.

I would like to be challenged, of course. 99% of the people that I am connected with would disagree with me (that is my expectation). Let me see how this argument develops.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
11th May 2013

JFK

Last week, I visited the Texas Book Depository on Elm Street in Dallas.

While I had been to Dallas several times, this was the first time I thought about going to see the place where President JF Kennedy was shot in 1963.

It was an experience !

The Book Depository has been maintained like it was way back in 1963, some 5 decades ago. I thought the entry fee of USD 16 was somewhat on the higher side for what was essentially a lesson on freedom and democracy.

I read almost all the placards in which JFK’s life history, his passions, his determination on civil rights, and his fights with communism were so well documented. I also saw the couple of film documentaries on his life, especially impressed by the one that was shot after his assassination.

When I looked at the spot chosen by Lee Harvey Oswald to shoot the President, I was indeed surprised. It must have been a rather tricky shot – in fact there was a tree in the line of fire. There were so many doubts about this assassination leading to several congressional inquiries. It is very difficult to believe that an assassin took a shot on the President of the U.S. from a bookstore and almost got away, and that too, from an improbable angle with a USD 12.78 rifle that he purchased via post.

I spent an hour and a half and then walked down to the exact spot on the road where the President’s car was when he was shot, marked with an “X” mark on the road leading to the underpass. An “open” presidential car procession is inconceivable in today’s world.

The oratorical skills of President JFK continue to impress me. His vigour and passion, his deep interest in the arts, his ability to fight against the Soviet Union, and his very deep conviction on Civil Rights for the blacks are all elements of a world-class leader.

Well, that was a rather young and high-potential leader’s life cut short by a brutal assassin, who was probably mentally deranged anyway.

If you are in Dallas, make it a point to go to the downtown and see the Bookstore Museum. It became, and continues to be, an critically important milestone in the development of human freedom and democracy, and is a beacon for people around the world in memory of a President who cared about freedom of people all around the world.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
27 April 2013

Democracy Vs Growth

I recently heard Dr Raghuram Rajan, the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India and an eminent academic with impeccable credentials, argue the case for an inclusive growth in a democratic environment, with reference to India.

I agree that economic growth should take the entire population forward in an economic sense, rather than enriching the rich as has been happening in India, thereby widening the rich-poor gap. The situation is not different in the U.S. as well, where that gap has been widening for years.

The key issue is whether the Indian style of democracy is appropriate when you have the unenviable task of advancing the nation of 1.2 Billion people, most of who have been left behind in the past decade of over 8% GDP growth.

Dr Rajan argues that democracy provides the environment for that forward movement by allowing the strengthening of institutions which have been found wanting of late – especially the bureaucracy and the financial institutions of India which could not cope with the rapid economic growth of India. This was cited by him as one of the reasons for India’s recent economic slowdown.

I am not sure – India’s economic policy planners did not do their job properly in the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Supply-side bottlenecks and infrastructural gaps should have been addressed faster. There is no dearth of economic talent in the policy-making circles of Indian Government, so I do not understand the logic of the institutional lack of measuring up to the growth demands. The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has been delivering a fantastic monetary policy control, so it has not been found wanting (except by an impatient government and growth-hungry businesses) in its execution. So, if Dr Rajan is pointing fingers at the RBI, that is patently incorrect and wrongly pointed.

The Government mandarins and economic policy makers at the apex of the Finance Ministry and the Planning Commission did not understand the needs of the growing economy and execute better. That can be one of the reasons why the infrastructure bottlenecks are still firmly in place and constricting the growth of Indian economy. A scandal-prone and scandal-ridden government was basically not able to move fast forward in economic execution, especially in key sectors such as Energy / Power. Since there is no penalty for slow decision-making or no decision-making, the government business goes on and bureaucrats survive to see another day, may be under another government.

Unless the democratic form of government enables a reward / punishment system for positive / zero / negative economic growth and fiscal deficit management, in the same manner that a corporate organization operates, I do not see why things will improve in India. Everything cannot be based on accidental performance criteria.

Think about it – how will such a huge USD 1.8T (on PPP basis) economy grow at 10% a year for the next 20 years (which is the needed growth to lift India from poverty), when democracy disables the economic performance by deliberate measures ?

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
7th April 2013

The Indian Flexibility

Many of us were proud when the Italian Government capitulated to the strident demands of the Indian Government and sent back the two Italian marines accused of killing two Indian fishermen off the coast of Kerala early last year.

While there were many factors involved in the backroom diplomacy which went on relentlessly between the two countries, it was a keenly watched event all around the country. Not the least reason for the same was the test that it provided to Indian diplomacy to prove itself, after so many setbacks over the years when it came to dealing with the well-being and life protection of Indian citizens. India has traditionally been week in that department, and the less said, the better.

In the case of the Italian marines, it would be the Indian Government which would have succumbed, had the Supreme Court of India not been involved. As we all know, the Supreme Court of India has taken many key decisions whenever the Government did not act in the interest of the people of India. The Supreme Court has been the saviour for many folks and institutions over the years by taking a proactive stand in matters affecting public interest.

In this case as well, the Supreme Court of India acted suo moto on the developments. When it learnt that the Italian marines would not be coming back to stand trial in contravention of the undertaking given by the Italian Government via its Ambassador to India, it took a clear step prohibiting the Italian Ambassador from leaving India until further orders.

Would the Indian Government ever do that ? OK, it is given that the Indian Government cannot act against the Vienna Convention on diplomatic rights of unfettered movement and other rights of diplomats. But even symbolically it would not have done something which would seriously upset the diplomatic relations between the two countries.

I am not referring to speeches made by the Prime Minister or other ministers in this regard. I am referring to well thought-out actions by the Government – it is all in the execution, isn’t it ?

Well finally the Italian Government sent back the marines and they are cooling their heels in the Italian Embassy in Delhi. Let us see how things go from here. It would still be a test for the Indian Government, given its links to Italy.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
30th March 2013

The Case for Raising Interest Rates

This post is in the context of the current economic situation in India.

There was a report yesterday in The Times Of India that the Government of India is prodding the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to drop interest rates in the upcoming review of interest rate policy.

I do not think that the RBI will yield to government pressure, having stood tall over the past many quarters with an independent and fair analysis of the state of the economy. There is no issue with the government wanting to raise the GDP growth rates, but it must first reduce the current account deficit to a Parliament-mandated target.

While Finance Minister Mr P Chidambaram has worked hard on the Budget that he unveiled last month outlining measures to reduce the deficit, still much needs to be done. India was never short of policy planners and strategists – but India always had a problem with execution.

It is commendable that the Finance Minister has not yielded to an election year scramble for spending tax-payer money on populist measures, and has controlled the urge to spend more. But he needs to do more to ensure that the inflation is brought under check by eliminating supply-side bottlenecks which continue to hobble the Indian economy.

What has the government done to at least reduce the inflation by couple of percentage points ?

NONE, nothing that anyone can see.

Infrastructure wreaks under the ever-increasing load, and there is no determination on the part of the various ministries to concentrate their efforts on removing all hurdles on the way to growth.

The blame of slowing economic growth cannot be laid at the doorsteps of the RBI.

In fact, I would argue that the RBI should now declare a upward bias on interest rates, since the consumer inflation is again going up. Real estate prices are skyrocketing when the entire economy is decelerating. I don’t think India will exceed 6.2% GDP growth rate in the year starting in April 2013 – at best it would reach 6.0%. RBI need not throttle growth but it should warn the government and the business leaders that it won’t drop interest rates to oblige their priorities and put the common man on the mat.

Government can do a lot more than what they have done so far. It has been a total systemic failure of economic policy making at the senior levels of the government which boasts of Dr Manmohan Singh as the architect of the 1991 economic reforms.

But, the spectre of 1991 is returning to India, and all our foreign currency reserves and gold reserves won’t be able to save us this time also.

Reduce the deficit below 4.6% and then something can be done on the interest rate policy – till such time, growth has to contend with inflationary pressures ever-present in the economy.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
10th March 2013

Sycophancy

Sycophancy has long been a hallmark of Indian political system.

Be it the ruling party or the opposition parties, positioning one person as their acknowledged leader much before the party says so, in a very flattering and undeserved manner, has been the practice.

The reason for the same is not difficult to find: India has always been a hierarchical society, wherein a family or person considered to be superior to the rest, has always maintained that position rather successfully, despite seismic changes in the society itself.

The party men are usually of the fawning types, who know that to get a “ticket” in the upcoming election and contest in the same, they need to fall at the feet of the superior folks.

In a rather obnoxious manner, even the most well-educated party leaders and ministers fall for this angle – they come to believe that it is in the interest of the party that the “superior” family person, irrespective of his/her qualifications or experience, should be felicitated well in advance. Such a bad practice can only be a recurring theme in the Eastern societies – there is hardly a case in the West when a particular candidate, or a particular family, or a particular hierarchy, is elevated by party men as the “demi-god” of their political ambitions and prepared for attaining the throne.

I was taken aback when one of the most erudite and very highly qualified ministers stated that the family guy is the right person for becoming the next prime minister or something to that effect. All such statements are, of course, taken note of by the family and the concerned coterie surrounding the family person – the “young turks” who want more political power.

But, we are no longer in the 20th Century. We are well on our way into the 21st Century, and India is no longer a servile nation of lower middle class and rural population, who would buy into any such story and positioning. Such classes of people have now risen with the economic growth and are not to be trifled with innocuous statements in the hope of winning their votes. The great thing which has happened in our society is the upward migration of the poorer sections of the society towards the middle class status due to the economic growth of the past decade, thereby consolidating their position as trend-setters in electoral politics.

Application of mind is critical to eliminate a family hold on the world’s largest democracy, qualifications not withstanding. There must be fair play, and family pedigree should increasingly become a non-qualification.

I am sure people will come around to making sense of the political mayhem that would result by placing an inexperienced, unqualified, non-communicative person in the exalted position of the next prime minister. While the current prime minister has not delivered great results despite his outstanding qualifications and bureaucratic experience, that does not mean the party should go for the exact opposite in terms of selecting their next leader.

All this is theoretical at this point in time, as the coalition arrangements are yet to be formed in anticipation of the 2014 National Elections. Whether it is in the ruling party or in the opposition, sycophancy needs to be avoided, because that’s what was instrumental in making us slaves to the British for 200 years.

Let us not forget history’s valuable lessons !

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
24th Feb 2013
Mumbai

Business First

Mumbai yet again demonstrated its business focus and efficiency by giving short shrift to the national worker strike call given by the trade unions.

Nothing changed in Mumbai during the two days this past week and there was no untoward violence of any sort, though there was violence in Noida near Delhi.

Businesses and schools functioned, though the traffic was a bit light on Mumbai roads. The higher secondary examinations started off without any delays and students did not report any transportation delays.

While it is important to handle workers’ problems and address their grievances in a positive manner, taking to the streets and causing economic and social losses to society and the economy is not the way to go – that would only be a repetition of old-school ways.

The world has changed, the Indian society has irretrievably changed, and the social compact between various segments of society need to reach an equilibrium. The government has to play a firmer role but is always held hostage to multiple vested interests, leading to a lack of clarity in its approach and decision-making. That is the inevitable though clearly avoidable pitfall of coalition democracy.

What we really need is a “coalition of the willing” – parties who really take the interests of the people into account and apply equitable principles for resolving problems facing society. Easier said than done.

As long as we continue to politicize all aspects of our society, we will continue to remain in an irretrievable morass of confusion, leading to continuous societal frictions. And, all that will affect our social development and economic growth.

Look at the economic losses that India suffered in just two days – it is estimated to be USD 5B but that is an inaccurate and grossly underestimated figure. Can the slowing Indian economy take that kind of loss today ?

Surely not.

Let us think for all of us, rather than just “us”.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
23rd Feb 2013
Mumbai

Government and Discretion

Should we give discretionary powers to bureaucrats, politicians and ministers which over-rides rulings already arrived at by Courts of Law ?

This aspect of granting discretionary powers to government is common in the Commonwealth Group of countries. India is one amongst them and so has been strongly influenced by the arbitrary assumption of discretionary powers in matters which have been decided by the Courts. Many a time, politics plays a big role in delaying decisions – especially, the uncomfortable ones which the government is forced to take.

But now, there is a fierce debate on such powers which have mostly been misused in the past.

Well, we can question – do we not, as a fully functioning democracy, the largest one in the world at that, grant powers to the elected government to decide on matters such as mercy petitions ? What about land allocations to private companies then ? and, what about many other matters which could be decided to favour one or the other vested interest ? and so on, and so forth………

Governments need to have some discretionary powers. But, there should be oversight on how it is exercised. The best way to do that is to have a committee comprising of the Judiciary, the Executive and the Parliament which would consider matters of national interest – for example, allocation of natural resources, determination of national security impact, mercy petitions, et al. How can the President of the country act on a mercy petition based on a much delayed clearance from the Union Cabinet ? He should receive counsel from such a high-powered committee instead of depending on just the Union Cabinet which could in turn, be taking directions from the political parties controlling the votes in the Parliament.

It is time to calibrate our responses in a new manner, so as to achieve equitable justice on social and judicial matters of key interest to the country. We cannot just be looking at votes all the time, let us not worry about the next elections.

We have to do what is right for this country.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
10th Feb 2013
Mumbai

Funny Article by a Mother

Courtesy: Anu, my IIM-B Classmate

Received from a lady friend:-

Yes, I get it. As a mother myself, I completely understand. You are a doting mom. You think your son is a genius. Even when his teachers, your neighbors, their grand-aunts, in fact, the whole world tells you that your boy has an IQ of a doorknob, you do not agree. He is your son, and you are firmly convinced that he is destined for great things.

When he drops out of school, you blame it on the teachers. When he can’t get a job on his own merit, you think it is the employers who are at fault. You get him a job using your influence, he fails miserably at that too. You curse the cruel world.

You cheer loudly at his smallest accomplishments. He takes a local train ride in Mumbai, you celebrate like he has summited Everest.

He is 44, unmarried. He has no degree nor does he have a job. In fact, he cannot list a SINGLE accomplishment of his own. Naturally, sonny boy is a bit depressed. He is tired of the robot you bought him some time ago. He wants a new toy.

When he asks for something, you never hesitate to give it to him. You will beg, borrow and steal, but you will get your precious boy what he wants! I totally get that. You are his doting mamma after all! Most mothers would have done that.

Only difference is, while other mothers might buy their sons a motorcycle or a car, you want to give your son a whole COUNTRY to run!

Courtesy: Anu, my IIM-B Classmate

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
9th Feb 2013
Mumbai

Lady, you certainly dream big!