Subsidy Compulsions
Last week, the inflation reached 8.1% in India.
At this rate, your money in the bank earns a negative rate of interest after taxes. With oil prices spiralling beyond USD 130 and no end in sight for the food crisis, the situation has become very challenging for a government which has to balance a myriad of interests in the run up to the elections next year.
Oil products are highly subsidised in India for the consumer. It is going to be 2 years since the government last raised pump prices. It is a politically explosive issue, with the Communists pushing for maintenance of prices and more subsidies to the government oil marketing companies which are incurring huge losses. These losses work out to approximately Rs 2,800 crores (USD 700M or SGD 1B) per day. Yes, per day, given that oil constitutes the biggest import of India. The government and political parties are fully aware of the implications - they are well educated on the matter. However, when elections are looming, no one wants to take a risk. Inflation was a major factor for the Congress’ loss at the Karnataka polls recently, where the opposition BJP won the elections, almost a majority in what is known to be a strong Congress State.
Similarly, food could become a critical issue for the government. While there are no protests yet on the streets, the rice prices are rising along with vegetable and pulse prices. There is no clear indication of how a steep rise in prices would be managed by the government, when supplies could become a constraint. India has a food surplus, so things may not deteriorate that badly. However, one cannot discount the fact that shelf prices have already started to affect the urban population which constitutes an important, if not decisive component of any election in India.
There is the free market way of doing things - the very “Western” and “IMF” prescription of just go and match world market prices. But, as we saw in several cases around the world, especially in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand, the IMF ways do not work on the ground. In populous countries like Indonesia, India, and China, apart from political compulsions, there is the matter of poverty and the ability to pay. One out of every 3 Indians subsists below or at the poverty level in India, which is roughly USD 1 to 2 per day. Food and Kerosene are very critical elements of their consumption, and if the government’s free-market approach determines the prices of these goods, the subsistence of over 300 million Indians would be at serious stake. Just think about it.
One can argue about the wastage in the Public Distribution System in India, the lack of efficiency in the Agricultural Infrastructure and Irrigation Systems, the poor condition of the transportation systems leading to high consumption of oil, etc., However, the fact remains that it would take several years with a concerted plan of action to improve all these things - quite a medium-term effect in the best of times, when a democracy has to grapple with coalition politics.
Poor people would need protection from rising prices faster, hence there is no better way than to subsidise oil and food prices. It is not that only India has to implement subsidies - in the U.S. who has not heard about “food bills” ? While like most “free-market” theorists, I am inclined to adopt market-friendly approaches to almost everything in life, it is difficult and impossible not to be able to forecast the deprivations of the poor people in the society. To do so, in a very “capitalistic” way, would distance oneself from the ground realities, and isolate the economics and make it irrelevant.
Well, this does not mean that the government of the day can’t do more to correct the price imbalances. There is a lot which can be done, and which are not being done in India. One is ofcourse, to reduce the dependence on oil by going the whole hog on Nuclear Power - I have written about this topic in the past. The share of nuclear power in India is miniscule, it should reach atleast 15 to 20% of total power generated in the next 10 to 15 years. And, that is possible only if the subject of power is delinked from petty politics. America has come with open arms to help India, having realised the challenges India faces in the matter of power. But, so far, India has not closed the deal and moved on into a new chapter - this is a matter of serious concern.
Government needs to also look at (a) increasing the pump prices of petrol/diesel, while keeping the kerosene price stable ; (b) impose a cess on automobile purchases ; (c) implement car pooling atleast in the metros ; (d) impose severe penalty on oil and food hoarders ; (e) drastically reduce the customs and excise duties on petroleum products ; (f) immediately investigate the leakages in the public distribution system ; and, (g) engage in a public communication exercise to advocate the criticality of reducing oil consumption.
Food has to be subsidised for the poor, there is no question about it, atleast for the next 6 months. All crises pass away eventually, so one could only hope that this crisis would also do so, and do so quickly. In the meantime, it is better to relook at socialist economics, for a change, after some 15 years !
Have a great weekend,
Cheers,
Vijay Srinivasan
31 May 2008
Mumabi

















