Monsoon in Mumbai

I promise I will place some good monsoon pics soon on my blog ! The problem is that the monsoon so far has been quite erratic, and the camera never seems to be available handy when the rains do strike !!

So far, the monsoon has played truant - couple of heavy showers over the past 4 weeks is all what Mumbai got. That’s not good news - monsoon determines India’s agricultural output, no less ! It also largely determines the water supply and power situation in Maharashtra State, India’s most industrialised and largest state, hosting its financial capital.

It rained heavily on 1st July morning, and that heavy downpour brought the city to a halt. Metro trains could not function, and I was shocked to witness the one-foot deep water on the Western Expressway, of all places. Below the expressway, where the low-lying areas abound, it was a total mess, giving lie to the Municipal Corporation’s boasts that they were ready for this year’s monsoon. People can only get scared thinking of what would have happened to Mumbai if the rains continued non-stop, as they normally do in July. Just recall what happened in 2005 and even in 2006. The city is hardly prepared even now, given all the learnings from the past experiences. And, we are talking about one single city of India - the financial, commercial and entertainment capital of India - which pays over 40% of India’s taxes.

But, to save the Municipal Corporation and the State Government from charges of negligence and apathy, the rain god decided to further delay the rains. It has showered on and off after 1st July, nothing that could hamper even the pedestrians ! That monsoon behaviour is no good either. If the pattern continues like this for the next couple of weeks, I guess Mumbai would have water supply problem, combined with partial power cuts. At the end of the day, this only proves one thing - good governance and efficient urban management is elusive even in the best of the countries around, but in India it is a scarce commodity. It is a precious skillset lacking absolutely all around India, which incidentally is in a state of political paralysis with the Communist Party threatening to withdraw support to the ruling UPA Government at the Centre.

But the beauty of Mumbai is that its people just do not bother - I was again amazed just looking at the people on the streets - sometime quite well dressed - moving about in heavy rains as though things are pretty normal. I could not even hear raised voices cursing anyone for the state of affairs. Mumbai folks are practical and have learnt to fend for themselves, they know for sure it is no use depending on the undependable and unreliable !

Life goes on, stock market is on the mend, people appear to be positive in their outlook, so it is business as usual in the business capital of the country !

Have a wonderful weekend, and don’t miss the Wimbledon !!

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
4th July 2008
Mumbai

Commentary on American Politics

It is hard not to take note of what is happening in American Politics.

While the Republican nomination for the next president went the conservative way, there was a two-fold revolution happening in the Democratic Nomination. First, it was the novelty of the possibility that there could be, after all, a woman president. America has taken too long, in fact, to reach this stage in its political evolution. Sen Hillary Clinton was expected to be the Democratic Nominee for the next president, and that indeed, is a revolution for the U.S. Not so, for several other nations, which have had woman presidents or prime ministers. India, Israel, Sri Lanka, and a host of other nations have had woman leaders. The current Chancellor of Germany is a great example of a powerful woman leader in the Western world itself. So, it is no great story outside the United States. But, in America, yes it is a big story. Given the situation that Sen Clinton was almost destined to win, it was turning out to be a big story.

The other facet of the Democratic Party elections was Sen Barack Obama, the first time a coloured person has achieved the status of even getting recognized as a lead contender in the race for the Democratic nomination. But, Sen Obama did it - he won the votes required for the nomination, and won over an experienced, well-established contender in Sen Clinton. It is indeed the “American” story of the underdog winning ultimately. Great stuff, and difficult to achieve in most countries around the world.

Well, the fight is still not finished. Sen Obama has a tough fight against the GOP nominee, Sen McCain. It could turn out any way - hard to forecast at this point in time.

However, looking from India’s perspective, a Democratic winner for President of the United States could be bad news. It could be bad news for the free market philosophy as well.

India has had great support from President Bush and the Republican Party over the last few years. The U.S. recognized India’s value and commitment to democracy right after 9/11. Finally, America realized that India is one of the few countries in the world worst hit by internal and external terror. It also needed a counter-balance to China in the emerging world order. Even after the Iraq war and the countless scandals involving Iraq and Afghanistan, America was fortunate to have been ranked as the most preferred country by Indians in general. And, this is in a country where American brands and soap operas do not dominate - yet. Overall, the U.S. has had a very positive image in India. I believe that this strong image helped the Indian Government in its move towards better relationship with the world’s most powerful democracy. Ofcourse, there are always other compulsions - geopolitical, military, power, etc., but India’s approach towards America improved dramatically to the extent that both the militaries have conducted a huge number of joint exercises in the past 8 years or so. Confidence has been built up on top of the good will gestures from both sides.

The U.S. has gone to the extent of offering India exemption from its very strong nuclear non-proliferation regulations. India will be the only such country in the entire world. It is India’s fate that we are not able to consummate the nuclear deal due to petty politics, but that again drives home the strength of the noisy Indian politics which cannot be taken hostage without an extensive public debate on the pros and cons. The U.S. is also offering its latest fighter jets in the USD 10B tender for 126 fighter jets by the Indian Air Force. So, finally after 60 years, India and the U.S. are really coming close on a shared platform of values and democratic ideals/credentials.

This would not have happened under a Democratic President, who would not take any risks when it comes to “adjusting” U.S. statutes to accommodate even an “emerging” power like India. On the other hand, Republican Presidents have been more aggressive (both for and against India in the past), and India always knew where it stood when it came to such presidents. With President Bill Clinton, it was never sure - atleast this is my reading.

While I have no personal interest in any party (domestic or American !), it becomes critical for each world citizen to understand the impact of a not-so-good-for-the-rest-of-the-world choice by the American people. An American President exerts enormous influence on the free world, and so it is not appropriate to ignore the elections in America as an internal affair. If not influencing it in any manner, one should atleast have due concern about the outcome.

While “American Dream” fulfilled in the case of Sen Obama sounds too good to be ignored, I think the Democratic Party / Government would become protectionist in nature, in the interest of safeguarding American jobs. It would also take a tough stand on the environment, non-proliferation, flow of dual-use technologies, and surely, the trade policy. There could be some damage to the outsourcing business in India. I do not believe it would take extra care to insure positive growth momentum for the world’s emerging economies - India, China, Brazil and Russia. While China might need less of America, India needs more and more of America. Hence, it may not turn out to be a great news for India if Sen Obama wins the American Presidency. If he does win, which is a distinct possibility, then India should lose no time in establishing quick bridges with the new President and build a strong rapport, earlier than other countries.

I may be completely wrong, but I have seen no positive references to India anywhere in his selected speeches that I have read. Whereas, Sen Hillary Clinton does nurture a positive image of India (may be also because of President Bill Clinton, who is involved in various aid initiatives in India). Ofcourse, I know nothing about Sen McCain, except to state that he would most likely continue the Bush Government’s policies. Some of which, have very positively impacted India, and helped both governments to come closer together.

These are views waiting to be disputed and argued against vigorously, I am sure !

Have a great weekend,

Best Regards

Vijay Srinivasan
7th June 2008
Mumbai

Subsidy Compulsions

Last week, the inflation reached 8.1% in India.

At this rate, your money in the bank earns a negative rate of interest after taxes. With oil prices spiralling beyond USD 130 and no end in sight for the food crisis, the situation has become very challenging for a government which has to balance a myriad of interests in the run up to the elections next year.

Oil products are highly subsidised in India for the consumer. It is going to be 2 years since the government last raised pump prices. It is a politically explosive issue, with the Communists pushing for maintenance of prices and more subsidies to the government oil marketing companies which are incurring huge losses. These losses work out to approximately Rs 2,800 crores (USD 700M or SGD 1B) per day. Yes, per day, given that oil constitutes the biggest import of India. The government and political parties are fully aware of the implications - they are well educated on the matter. However, when elections are looming, no one wants to take a risk. Inflation was a major factor for the Congress’ loss at the Karnataka polls recently, where the opposition BJP won the elections, almost a majority in what is known to be a strong Congress State.

Similarly, food could become a critical issue for the government. While there are no protests yet on the streets, the rice prices are rising along with vegetable and pulse prices. There is no clear indication of how a steep rise in prices would be managed by the government, when supplies could become a constraint. India has a food surplus, so things may not deteriorate that badly. However, one cannot discount the fact that shelf prices have already started to affect the urban population which constitutes an important, if not decisive component of any election in India.

There is the free market way of doing things - the very “Western” and “IMF” prescription of just go and match world market prices. But, as we saw in several cases around the world, especially in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand, the IMF ways do not work on the ground. In populous countries like Indonesia, India, and China, apart from political compulsions, there is the matter of poverty and the ability to pay. One out of every 3 Indians subsists below or at the poverty level in India, which is roughly USD 1 to 2 per day. Food and Kerosene are very critical elements of their consumption, and if the government’s free-market approach determines the prices of these goods, the subsistence of over 300 million Indians would be at serious stake. Just think about it.

One can argue about the wastage in the Public Distribution System in India, the lack of efficiency in the Agricultural Infrastructure and Irrigation Systems, the poor condition of the transportation systems leading to high consumption of oil, etc., However, the fact remains that it would take several years with a concerted plan of action to improve all these things - quite a medium-term effect in the best of times, when a democracy has to grapple with coalition politics.

Poor people would need protection from rising prices faster, hence there is no better way than to subsidise oil and food prices. It is not that only India has to implement subsidies - in the U.S. who has not heard about “food bills” ? While like most “free-market” theorists, I am inclined to adopt market-friendly approaches to almost everything in life, it is difficult and impossible not to be able to forecast the deprivations of the poor people in the society. To do so, in a very “capitalistic” way, would distance oneself from the ground realities, and isolate the economics and make it irrelevant.

Well, this does not mean that the government of the day can’t do more to correct the price imbalances. There is a lot which can be done, and which are not being done in India. One is ofcourse, to reduce the dependence on oil by going the whole hog on Nuclear Power - I have written about this topic in the past. The share of nuclear power in India is miniscule, it should reach atleast 15 to 20% of total power generated in the next 10 to 15 years. And, that is possible only if the subject of power is delinked from petty politics. America has come with open arms to help India, having realised the challenges India faces in the matter of power. But, so far, India has not closed the deal and moved on into a new chapter - this is a matter of serious concern.

Government needs to also look at (a) increasing the pump prices of petrol/diesel, while keeping the kerosene price stable ; (b) impose a cess on automobile purchases ; (c) implement car pooling atleast in the metros ; (d) impose severe penalty on oil and food hoarders ; (e) drastically reduce the customs and excise duties on petroleum products ; (f) immediately investigate the leakages in the public distribution system ; and, (g) engage in a public communication exercise to advocate the criticality of reducing oil consumption.

Food has to be subsidised for the poor, there is no question about it, atleast for the next 6 months. All crises pass away eventually, so one could only hope that this crisis would also do so, and do so quickly. In the meantime, it is better to relook at socialist economics, for a change, after some 15 years !

Have a great weekend,

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
31 May 2008
Mumabi

Handling Terrorism in India

This month saw the terror attacks in Jaipur, the much visited city of India, also known as the “Pink City”. It is the capital of Rajasthan State. The intent of the attack seems to be focused on scaring off the foreign tourists who throng this part of India. But now just after 10 days of the attack, things seemed to have returned to normal.

However, the normalcy is misleading. In the last decade or so, there have been close to around 50 terrorist attacks on Indian soil, and everytime, things appear to have been forgotten. Hundreds of people have died, but the impact is simply forgotten. This state of affairs is just deplorable.

How can a proud nation like India tolerate such indignities on its soil, hurting its very fabric of civil society ? And, how can it move on, without taking corrective actions which sting current and future terrorists and their plans ?

The argument that India is resilient, and moves on without much effect whatsoever, is just hogwash.

Further, it does give citizens a feeling of helplessness to counter any untoward attacks in future - they eventually give up on Government. This should not be the case. Citizens should demand action, and get the Government of the day to act decisively and vigourously.

That happened in the United States post 9/11. This is a case study of an assertive and determined Government (I would not like to comment on the party itself !), which went about in a methodical fashion to (a) formulate a decisive response plan for thwarting future terror attacks on American soil ; (b) communicate to its Citizens that there would be curbs on their personal liberties which they have cherished over the years, to defend the nation as a whole.

The Department of Homeland Security was established as a result.

The result is there for all to see - there has not been a single known attack on U.S. soil after 9/11. If that is not proof of the work done by the Government, what else is ? Governments need to protect their citizens. Period.

But the political wranglings and appeasement techniques used in India have only resulted in a series of terror attacks over the years. There is apparently no coordination between central and state intelligence agencies. There is no vigourous Governmental response to terror attacks. In a nutshell, the Indian response to such attacks can only be termed as “feeble”.

Coming from Singapore, where there is a very high degree of coordination amongst Government agencies, this is indeed shocking. One can dismiss Singapore as too small to be compared with a vast nation like India. What about the United States, which is roughly 2.5 times the size of India in terms of land area ?

I am also shocked with the apparent nonchalance of the educated people around. They do not seem to mind as long as they get to enjoy the day - I mean, TODAY ! Such an indifference, and short-sightedness, would not help the Government. Politics looms large in a democracy like India, wherein the immediate compulsions are to satisfy or forecast the desires of the electorate.

This is just unfortunate, and does not give confidence that a solid foundation is being laid on the ground to fight the terrorists. They will gain confidence instead to launch new attacks on a weak state. That would lead to more losses of innocent lives, which is despicable. Government cannot do anything about the loss of lives.

Look at United States, Israel, and Singapore. See how they manage and handle terrorism. I am sure that there are many attacks which are not consummated due to the planned responses of the intelligence agencies of such determined countries. That means lots of lives are getting saved on a continuous basis, even without the knowledge of the common man on the street ! Isn’t that the way to go forward in India as well ?

India should formulate a plan very quickly, and set up the equivalent of Homeland Security Dept with powers which are nationally applicable. No questions asked. The results only should matter. The sooner this is done, better it is for all Indian Citizens.

Let us hope the Honourable Dr Manmohan Singh’s Government sees the rationale (I am sure it does) in establishing a coordinated national response system to completely and totally thwart any kind of terrorist attacks on Indian soil. I am sure that India can do this quite well, and rather quickly, if the political compulsions are laid to rest. Forever. For the safety of Indians.

Have a wonderful and peaceful weekend,

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
24h May 2008
Mumbai

Poverty in Megalopolis

Poverty reduction is like a mirage in India.

Especially, in cities with large population of migrants, it becomes very hard to consciously focus on poverty reduction programs, since these migrants were not planned for initially.

All major cities in India have had influx of migrants from the relatively poorer regions of the country. Mumbai, I guess, has had the maximum share of migrants from all over the country, being the centre of major economic activities. Mumbai is a melting pot of migrants, surely for the well-endowed ones as well. Due to the heavy concentration of financial institutions and large corporate headquarters in the City, it is to be expected anyway.

Economic migrants of the poorer variety ofcourse, dominate in terms of numbers. Given the strain on the land in Mumbai and the cost of real estate as a consequence, there is hardly any alternative for the poorer migrants to live, except on the roads ! Such a scenario can be seen in most places in Mumbai as one drives around, especially in the suburbs. The slums encroaching upon the Airport Authority’s land in Santacruz is stark evidence of the impact of the migration on Mumbai.

The other day I saw that police had removed the hutments of poor people living across the road from Hypercity, diagonally opposite to it. There was a clean pavement, though it was just above the dirty nulla, or stream of water with harmful effluents. I thought, Wow, these folks had the nerve to carry out such an operation !

Today, the migrants were back at exactly the same place, with all their belongings intact !!

I can only think of a failure of governance in terms of providing affordable low-cost housing to these migrants, who are necessary for the economic activities going on all around - construction, factory work, home support work, and a million other activities required to sustain the fast-growing economy - someone is needed for work which could not be done by the existing folks who are engaged at a higher level of economic engagement in society.

In a developed country, this situation partially exists, such as in America with migrant Mexican workers. In Singapore with its almost full employment, the economic imperative is different - work cannot be done by current population, and so import of talent of all kinds is required, planned and executed well by the government.

However, in India, the migration largely occurs within the country (though there are other country imports which are not checked at the borders with Bangladesh or Nepal, for example). Several states have a poorer quality of living, and a very low GDP per capita. People are unemployed, or are not able to find productive work which pays well. Their dream is, what else, “Mumbai” ! Or, “New Delhi”.

In a democratic country, it becomes difficult to stop such migration officially. In China, the government can, and does, stop migration into cities like Shanghai, at will. Brute power sometimes help. But, that would not be possible in most countries.

So, it comes finally to the government of the day to solve the problem of reducing the strain on land, transportation, food, et al, when large population of migrants needs to be catered to. The economy and society needs their services as well. A real Hobson’s Choice, I guess.

We all need to think through potential solutions for this major problem of the day.

Cheers, and Have a Good Weekend,

Vijay Srinivasan
26 April 2008
Mumbai

Value of Human Life

I never properly understood the valuation of human life in developing countries.

Human Life appeared to be cheap in the under-developed countries of the world in the past, and that included most countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Now, several such countries are in the process of attaining an “emerging” or “developing” status, which in my mind really means a GDP Growth Rate faster than 6% as a ballpark, and a per-capita income approaching USD1,000 or more atleast in the more populous countries. However, this does not, by any chance, mean that the “Human Development Index” in these “developing” countries is improving in tandem.

Apart from the well-documented economic disparity between the haves and have-nots which is worsening in a very skewed manner as the emerging economies develop faster, the resulting rush to Western Consumption patterns amongst the younger generation is leading to behavioural tendencies with utter disregard to human life. Youngsters in developing countries such as India today wish to emulate their American counterparts closely, right from dress sense to soap operas to food habits. This also includes a “holier-than-thou” attitude in the economically stronger sub-section of the society, which while numerically smaller, has a big concentration in small pockets across urban societies with influence disproportionately higher than it should be, even on the poorer sub-sections of the same societies.

Such concentration leads to a wealth “show-off” effect, with people able to afford fast bikes and cars. In a large metropolis like Mumbai, there are many affluent pockets of society, as there are slums. The complete nonchalance exhibited by the wealthier sections of youngsters towards the human habitation in public places by the very poor migrants is totally reprehensible. Many murders have happened in the streets over the past year and a half, due to the total negligence of young and fast drivers (who sometimes do not even have driving licences) who lost control due to their recklessness or drunkenness. While Mumbai Police Authorities have taken up a vigorous drive to control drunken driving, the issue in India is still the same - one of enforcement in a consistent and uniform manner. Lack of automated means to track reckless driving and a rapid response system to nab criminal drivers continue to inhibit effective enforcement.

In a nutshell, human life has not much meaning in developing countries like India - it can be dispensed with conveniently to satisfy the ravages of the economically advanced sections of the society many a time, or it can be “bought”. The lack of success of “socialism” is evident over four decades of lacklustre growth in India - it means “poverty distribution” rather than “poverty reduction”. The understanding of the importance of human life and human development is totally lacking at all planning levels of the government. This can be seen from the lack of serious investment in Education and Infrastructure. India probably needs atleast 5% of its annual budget to be spent on primary and secondary education, rather than constantly celebrating higher education successes and placement stories wherein management students walk away with US$ 100,000 salaries. How can 1,500 successfully placed management students impact a developing society like India’s ? How can probably 10,000 highly qualified engineers solve the problems of development in India - I am just counting the top institutes’ output here.

India (and China) continue to get poor scores in the U.N. Human Development Index as well as Corruption Index. There is very little investment in the human “software” aspect, as compared to the “hardware” infrastructure focus that governments currently are pursuing in the developing world. But the whole point will be missed if we ultimately reach an economic status, wherein there is : (a) wide disparity in the economic status across multiple strata of society - it now looks like 1% of the society is approaching a per capita income of USD 10,000 (my own estimate), while more than 80% of the society has a per capita income less than USD 500. Such skew is not helpful as the economy progresses at a rapid 9% clip over the next decade or so ; (b) there continues to be a lack of “connect” between the two extreme ends of the society, with many a youngster in the poorer sections of the society getting lost out for lack of equitable opportunities in education and jobs ; and, (c) there continues to be utter lack of focus on primary education and its infrastructure, especially in villages - there are many in the remote districts of Maharashtra wherein there are no teachers even, let alone a proper building.

We have to consciously attempt to enhance the valuation of human life on par with how a developed Western Society currently does - there is always a huge concern even at the loss of a single life in such developed societies. Why is there no such concern exhibited by the powers that be, which most of the times, tend to write off such losses easily - be that may be due to a railway accident, due to negligent and reckless driving over pavement dwellers, due to caste rivalries, etc., There are a million examples which can be gleaned from news stories around India every day. How come on one side there is a rash adoption of everything Western, while there is just no look at the best of the West - the human value being just one of the many good things in the Western Civilization ? Why should we just pick the bad things without more analysis ?

And China is no different from India - for folks who are overwhelmed by the China Story, here is an article from New York Times - over a quarter of the Chinese population is poor, despite the great strides made by China over the last three decades in uplifting its people. Please read “Lives of Grinding Poverty, Untouched by China’s Boom by Howard W. French”

Some food for thought, I guess.

Have a great, long weekend, folks.

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
12th Jan 2008
Mumbai

The Wily Dictator

It is not a least bit surprising that Pakistan declared emergency rule, actually a martial law yesterday. Nobody could have missed it coming, not the least the U.S. Government which always has had a ringside view of what’s going on in Pakistan, and what exactly is going to happen as well.

It is ironic that what is happening in Pakistan, while not good for its citizens and the country as such, is apparently good for the U.S., and may be even for India. This has been the case since 1999 when the general captured power in a bloodless coup from a democratically elected government. It is clear that the general brings stability to the region though not as effective lately as he was after 9/11. While he is driven by his perceived need for stability of Pakistan as a whole, it is also very evident that he is not convinced of the effectiveness of democracy in a country which is largely feudalistic in nature and riven by factionalism. Combined with the fundamentalist agendas of several leading factions and religious fanatics, it is not difficult to see what the general saw before declaring martial law.

Surely, this is not good for the democratic development of Pakistan which would now increasingly slide back into extremism that even the general population would support since they would now lose confidence that democracy would ever succeed in Pakistan. I had hopes when Mr Shauqat Aziz, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, was appointed. He was a successful Citibanker, and I thought that he would fix the general and ease him out using corporate warfare techniques. President Musharraf proved to be too wily for that, or Aziz bought into his vision for the future of Pakistan. Foreign investment poured in and the stock market was booming, but politicking and factionalism have always been the bane of the violent political scene of Pakistan.

India and even the U.S. are maintaining a studious silence, apart from mouthing some inanities. The U.S. government is selfish when it comes to defending its interests, and I am absolutely sure that it would continue to fund the dictator and his plans. There are many secret ways to fund and defy the U.S. Congress, and everything can be justified in the “Global War on Terror”. After all, U.S. has always declared that Pakistan is a “key ally” in the war on terror, and it cannot go back on that statement. Any stoppage of funding would ensure that Pakistan goes slow on the terror fight, which would be a threat.

From the Indian perspective, there is no one better than President Musharraf to rule Pakistan, ironically the same general who caused the embarrassing war of Kargil, in which hundreds of Indian armymen lost their lives and the surprise element caught the Indians totally unprepared. It appears very strange that India likes to deal only with Musharraf, but India constantly worries about the stability quotient in the region, and would not be in a position to deal with a fundamentalist president or prime minister who chooses to go back in time and history, rather than work out the future. The good outcome of the Kargil war was the enhanced cooperation with Israel and increased defence spending by the Indian government. However, something strange happened in the aftermath - there was pressure by the Americans towards a detente, and the general turned positive on India’s demands to stop infiltration by extremist elements across the Actual Line of Control. Ofcourse, the Israeli fencing helped enormously in the process.

Over the past couple of years, there have been many positive noises between India and Pakistan, and there was a possibility that the general would give up his uniform and would become a democratically elected president. That would have eased the conscience of both the Indians and the Americans.

Now, this slide into anarchy which started yesterday, is actually not good for anyone even in the short term. The United Nations should condemn the development, and the U.S. government should allow that - atleast it would be a proxy to what the U.S. State Department would have liked to state publicly apart from the mild noises made by the Secretary of State who has increasingly become ineffective. And, India should send a message to the general to follow the Indian democratic model which works even amidst chaos all around the country. Given that basically the peoples are the same between the two countries, the only issue is apparently the religious extremism and fundamentalism spawned by the Taliban. India often is at the receiving end of terrorist attacks, but has learnt to take quick actions in following through with the leads, and has further taken actions to stop future attacks on its soil. While on the overall scorecard India comes short on its speed of reaction, and proactive planning, the system is resilient enough to survive and adapt itself to the new demanding environment. Brute force is not the solution, as Americans are learning in a very costly manner both in Afghanistan and Iraq. Counter infiltration is one way, convincing the general population is another way. Both do not work for the Americans as is evident from the situation in Iraq - trust of the local population is key to rapproachement and building a mutually beneficial solution.

I do hope that phones have not stopped ringing in Islamabad though it is a Sunday.

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
4th November 2007
Mumbai

Spending on Education

I read today in the newspapers that Indian workers abroad sent in excess of USD 25B last year back home.

Unlike most other developing countries, this constitutes barely 3% of India’s GDP, and is just about equal to India’s defence budget this year. But the startling fact was that India spends not even one-fifth of this amount on education !

Educational standards in India are in a pathetic state, atleast in the government-run schooling system. There is too much focus on higher education to the total detriment of primary and secondary education. In fact, there has been a huge debate on IIMs (Indian Institutes of Management) and IITs (Indian Institutes of Technology) which together produce just about 3,000 undergraduates every year - Government of India spends lots of money on these folks who go on to earn hugely in the private corporate sector, or go abroad. IIMs made history in this year’s final placements, with top graduates getting in excess of USD 250,000 as salary with some investment banks, with even domestic salaries crossing Rs 1 Crore for the cream-de-la-cream. I believe these salaries are even better than what one can hope to get out of Harvard or Stanford business schools !

There has been more discussion on “reservation” of specific under-priviledged castes for these institutions, than on improving basic education which would cater to millions of students, during the past 12 months in India. Misplaced priorities and budgets, one should conclude ! One has to be cognizant of the millions of impoverished children who would never get to see the portals of an IIM or an IIT. Is anyone in the government thinking of these children ?

The best way to eliminate poverty in total would be for a government to provide for quality basic education. There has always been discrimination and poor/inadequate budgeting when it comes to primary education in India. Teachers are poorly paid, the infrastructure of government schools is very bad, and both the under-priviledged and economically disadvantaged classes face inequities when competing with the middle and upper-middle classes of the society. The issue is government of the day and of the yesteryears, never placed much importance on basic education. This has built an unequal society with social inequities which would eventually translate into societal tensions.

Some scholars argue that such problems in India somehow persist without tensions, and would eventually go away. I do not agree - that is not planning, that is hoping for the best. While communism will never take root in India, I am loathe to see wealth being talked up by newspapers almost every day - this would only mean the “wealthy” class gets a treatment by society very different from the average man. While that may be okay from the perspective of an armchair analyst, it may not be all right for a society with huge economic and digital divides spread all around the country.

In the United States, which also spends a hugely disproportionate amount on military budget (in excess of USD 500B this year), the basic necessities of society have been met long time ago and the infrastructure is in place. Further, Americans are known for their charitable bent of mind. Americans donate every day for almost every charitable cause, and philanthropy has become fashionable. Such actions help the society to get rid of any existing inequalities. Further, education has mostly been unshackled from the government. Government cannot do business anywhere properly, why leave education in its hands ? This initiative would require enormous funding, which is there in many developed economies. In developing economies, government professes that it can do a better job in addressing social inequalities and fix fundamental issues such as education, but I have not seen any one country doing a good job at it, except very small nations such as Singapore.

There is an urgent need for PPP (Public-Private-Partnership) in basic and secondary education in India. Government will never be able to balance its budget, and pay more for education, except an increase of may be 3 to 5% more annually. High-quality education at the primary level, and making it compulsory for all children, will go a long way in making a developed economic vision a reality and meeting the goals of an advanced society for social and economic equilibrium, with access being equal to all and one.

Time to think.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
20 October 2007
Mumbai

Singapore to Macau

I passed through Singapore earlier this week on my way to Macau for a company event.

Singapore still remains the same - almost. The construction of casinos appeared to be in full swing, and there was an eyesore of a ferris wheel modelled after the “London Eye”. I don’t understand why Singapore needs to copy other countries’ innovations. It has enough of its own despite being of small size. Nevertheless, it appears to believe some of its future growth could come from entertainment targeted at specific audiences rather than just leisure travel.

The other thing that has changed in Singapore is the rapid increase in real estate prices, driven by the anticipated casino-related boom by 2009, and invasion by foreigners who increasingly seem to consider Singapore as safe haven. That consideration is more or less true in my opinion. Singapore qualifies to be the Switzerland of Asia despite the lack of scenery, just in terms of its financial status and infrastructure.

I had to travel by the MRT system to reach my condominium located at a suburb, and I noticed that the system and stations are kept extremely neat, there is just no let up on the focus on cleanliness and efficiency. There were more trains available - the waiting time seems to have reduced considerably. All these observations come from a person who rarely ever used the MRT in the past except for some joy rides around the city !

I met with several old colleagues, but more about that in a separate blog post with pics, etc.,

At Macau, a city dedicated entirely to the entertainment industry, I stayed at the Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, the latest hotel to adorn the city (opened less than a month ago). It is a huge hotel, with cavernous gambling halls and convention/exhibition centres. I got tired just by walking around and through the casino tables to reach the meeting rooms ! Contrary to popular perceptions on the grandeur of the hotel, I was not impressed.

One thing - the hotel is essentially a casino rather than a resort. The only thing I enjoyed was the gondola ride on the fake Venice-looking waters maneuvred by Italians. Again, I will publish the photos separately. Sorry !

I was shocked to see the crowds all through the day busily gambling - some looked very young. I was further shocked when I came down for breakfast at 7:45 AM and still saw crowds at that early hour. Unbelievable - looks like a lot of people have been seduced enough to lose their hard-earned money !

I dread to imagine what would happen in Singapore. It could not be any different. Though Singapore proclaimed that there would be no sleaze in its casinos, I did not find sleaze in this Macau Resort as well. May be it is new, but the focus appears to be on gambling and the environment rather than on the James Bond like scenes with scantily clad women hovering around the black jack tables. So if Singapore Casinos’ USP is “gambling with no sleaze and resort environment for families coming along with their gambler father or mother”, that kind of environment has already been created in Macau.

Well, that is market competition and dynamics. The same builders are also constructing Singapore’s first casino. I am against casinos in general, and used to sport a sticker “casiNO !” in my car’s back windshield during the campaign in Singapore. Why destroy good people, tempt them into spending money on what is non-essential for family happiness ?

You can expect more posts on this trip soon !

Have a good weekend,

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
6th October 2007

CAMP : Macau Special Administrative Region of Peoples’ Republic of China !

Maria Arbatova and Indian Husbands

It was funny reading the news reports that “The import of eligible bachelors from India is my big geopolitical idea” attributed to Maria Arbatova, a prominent television presenter and a leading Russian feminist author. India can be of help now that Russia has come to grips with its formidable demographic problem, she said.

She went on to say that Indians make the best husbands for Russian women as they are “more open” and share an emotional relationship with family.

The news coverage can be read at “Express India”

Maria Arbatova has been a non-conformist from a very young age, and I am not surprised to see her views. However, I disagree that Indian Husbands have unique advantage in familial bonding. I have met a variety of nationalities, especially during my stay at Singapore, and I beg to disagree with Maria’s views. At the end of the day, it is a very individual and personal choice. She seems to have made a choice now with an Indian partner, but that is after two failed partnerships. She might have seen the difference now, though !

In any case, it would be interesting to read her website and articles, see “Maria Arbatova”

Russian population is shrinking every day with a high death rate caused by unhealthy lifestyles - alcoholism compounded by suicide, and a very low birth rate. It is no wonder they are looking for “external” solutions. However, I also happened to read that Japan is planning to produce highly intelligent robots (they are already world leaders) which would take the place of its ageing population. It would be soon, may be in the next 25 years, when one would be greeted by an Immigration Robot at the Narita International Airport in Tokyo !

Have a wonderful week ahead,

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
16 September 2007
Mumbai