It’s the Economy, Stupid

India’s inflation hit 11.05% as of Friday 20th June.

It is a massive jolt to the ruling UPA Coalition - seemingly uncontrollable march towards double digit inflation. The Bombay Sensex lost over 500 points on Friday (3.42%). Interest rates are bound to rise in the coming weeks, making home purchases, durables, and cars that much more expensive. Is the India story coming unstuck ?

When I mentioned to a friend about the potential drop in India’s consumption and GDP growth rates, he was not receptive - the hype still has a solid impact on professionals all around, especially those in the retail and banking/finance sectors. Many people still believe that India would move on, despite the credit squeeze and the inflation. While that may be (or is) true, the reality is staring starkly at our faces. Auto, banking, and realty stocks are down badly over the past week or so. Thousands of crores of market cap has disappeared in the past few days. Foreign funds have repatriated huge amounts back from the stock market. Petrol and diesel price rises of last week have contributed to a rise in inflation.

The government is caught between the fire and the frying pan. In fact, the petrol price increase was not as much as was expected, Subsidies still amount to a big part of the price. If only the government removes all subsidies and let the market dictate the price, the pump prices would rise by atleast another 25%, leading to an inflation of, may be 20% overall. There is no point in keeping money in fixed deposits which pay 9% interest when the inflation is crossing 11%. Stock market investment, while still the overall best, is currently not for the faint-hearted. The Senex is indeed marching towards 14,000 - a full 33% below the peak of 21,xxx attained earlier this year.

The fate of any government would hang in balance, and the current Central Government is no exception, despite the astute financial management expertise available between the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and the Finance Minister, Mr P Chidambaram. The elections are due next year, but there is another huge challenge in front of this government, a non-economic one at the outset.

And, that is the Nuclear Pact with the IAEA and the U.S. While a bad economy could unseat a government, bad politics could be worse. The UPA Coalition has the Communist Party as a member (though not in the government per se), and they are stopping the government from signing of the nuclear agreement. Now, this agreement is very critical for India. The dependency on imported oil is 70% for India, and that can only get worse. With oil prices pushing USD 150, and predicted to hit USD 200 over the next 6 to 24 months (according to a recent Goldman Sachs report), things could not get worse for India. Nuclear power is the only option open, though the gestation periods are longer as compared to fossil fuel power plants. India needs nuclear fuel, and that is available from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) only if India signs IAEA Safeguards Agreement. The U.S. is ready, for the past 6 months, but India is not ready. This could be puzzling for most external observers. Who would say no to the free-market supply of nuclear fuel which could unshackle India from the heavy dependence on oil and coal ?

But, that is the way it is in a fractious coalition, influenced strongly by Communists, though their votes are few in the parliament. They have threatened to vote against their own government if it proceeds with the signing of the nuclear pact. And, the Prime Minister wants to resign if the pact does not see the light of the day. He is not a true politician, so he is able to see the very long-term benefits to India of such a close cooperation agreement with the U.S. and the nuclear watchdog (the IAEA). But India is also full of skeptics, who like American consumer goods but not the heavy stuff like these agreements and pacts which they do not understand in toto.

Well, that is democracy. The commoner is not affected by all this politics. He wants to increase his consumption, and fulfil his desires in a growing, affluent economy. But if the economic growth drops significantly due to the credit impact and interest rates, et al, then he would not hesitate to seek a change in the government. Looks like the day is approaching. Can we blame the commoner and his use of democratic tools at his disposal ?

Have a wonderful weekend,

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
21 June 2008
Mumbai

Commentary on American Politics

It is hard not to take note of what is happening in American Politics.

While the Republican nomination for the next president went the conservative way, there was a two-fold revolution happening in the Democratic Nomination. First, it was the novelty of the possibility that there could be, after all, a woman president. America has taken too long, in fact, to reach this stage in its political evolution. Sen Hillary Clinton was expected to be the Democratic Nominee for the next president, and that indeed, is a revolution for the U.S. Not so, for several other nations, which have had woman presidents or prime ministers. India, Israel, Sri Lanka, and a host of other nations have had woman leaders. The current Chancellor of Germany is a great example of a powerful woman leader in the Western world itself. So, it is no great story outside the United States. But, in America, yes it is a big story. Given the situation that Sen Clinton was almost destined to win, it was turning out to be a big story.

The other facet of the Democratic Party elections was Sen Barack Obama, the first time a coloured person has achieved the status of even getting recognized as a lead contender in the race for the Democratic nomination. But, Sen Obama did it - he won the votes required for the nomination, and won over an experienced, well-established contender in Sen Clinton. It is indeed the “American” story of the underdog winning ultimately. Great stuff, and difficult to achieve in most countries around the world.

Well, the fight is still not finished. Sen Obama has a tough fight against the GOP nominee, Sen McCain. It could turn out any way - hard to forecast at this point in time.

However, looking from India’s perspective, a Democratic winner for President of the United States could be bad news. It could be bad news for the free market philosophy as well.

India has had great support from President Bush and the Republican Party over the last few years. The U.S. recognized India’s value and commitment to democracy right after 9/11. Finally, America realized that India is one of the few countries in the world worst hit by internal and external terror. It also needed a counter-balance to China in the emerging world order. Even after the Iraq war and the countless scandals involving Iraq and Afghanistan, America was fortunate to have been ranked as the most preferred country by Indians in general. And, this is in a country where American brands and soap operas do not dominate - yet. Overall, the U.S. has had a very positive image in India. I believe that this strong image helped the Indian Government in its move towards better relationship with the world’s most powerful democracy. Ofcourse, there are always other compulsions - geopolitical, military, power, etc., but India’s approach towards America improved dramatically to the extent that both the militaries have conducted a huge number of joint exercises in the past 8 years or so. Confidence has been built up on top of the good will gestures from both sides.

The U.S. has gone to the extent of offering India exemption from its very strong nuclear non-proliferation regulations. India will be the only such country in the entire world. It is India’s fate that we are not able to consummate the nuclear deal due to petty politics, but that again drives home the strength of the noisy Indian politics which cannot be taken hostage without an extensive public debate on the pros and cons. The U.S. is also offering its latest fighter jets in the USD 10B tender for 126 fighter jets by the Indian Air Force. So, finally after 60 years, India and the U.S. are really coming close on a shared platform of values and democratic ideals/credentials.

This would not have happened under a Democratic President, who would not take any risks when it comes to “adjusting” U.S. statutes to accommodate even an “emerging” power like India. On the other hand, Republican Presidents have been more aggressive (both for and against India in the past), and India always knew where it stood when it came to such presidents. With President Bill Clinton, it was never sure - atleast this is my reading.

While I have no personal interest in any party (domestic or American !), it becomes critical for each world citizen to understand the impact of a not-so-good-for-the-rest-of-the-world choice by the American people. An American President exerts enormous influence on the free world, and so it is not appropriate to ignore the elections in America as an internal affair. If not influencing it in any manner, one should atleast have due concern about the outcome.

While “American Dream” fulfilled in the case of Sen Obama sounds too good to be ignored, I think the Democratic Party / Government would become protectionist in nature, in the interest of safeguarding American jobs. It would also take a tough stand on the environment, non-proliferation, flow of dual-use technologies, and surely, the trade policy. There could be some damage to the outsourcing business in India. I do not believe it would take extra care to insure positive growth momentum for the world’s emerging economies - India, China, Brazil and Russia. While China might need less of America, India needs more and more of America. Hence, it may not turn out to be a great news for India if Sen Obama wins the American Presidency. If he does win, which is a distinct possibility, then India should lose no time in establishing quick bridges with the new President and build a strong rapport, earlier than other countries.

I may be completely wrong, but I have seen no positive references to India anywhere in his selected speeches that I have read. Whereas, Sen Hillary Clinton does nurture a positive image of India (may be also because of President Bill Clinton, who is involved in various aid initiatives in India). Ofcourse, I know nothing about Sen McCain, except to state that he would most likely continue the Bush Government’s policies. Some of which, have very positively impacted India, and helped both governments to come closer together.

These are views waiting to be disputed and argued against vigorously, I am sure !

Have a great weekend,

Best Regards

Vijay Srinivasan
7th June 2008
Mumbai

Subsidy Compulsions

Last week, the inflation reached 8.1% in India.

At this rate, your money in the bank earns a negative rate of interest after taxes. With oil prices spiralling beyond USD 130 and no end in sight for the food crisis, the situation has become very challenging for a government which has to balance a myriad of interests in the run up to the elections next year.

Oil products are highly subsidised in India for the consumer. It is going to be 2 years since the government last raised pump prices. It is a politically explosive issue, with the Communists pushing for maintenance of prices and more subsidies to the government oil marketing companies which are incurring huge losses. These losses work out to approximately Rs 2,800 crores (USD 700M or SGD 1B) per day. Yes, per day, given that oil constitutes the biggest import of India. The government and political parties are fully aware of the implications - they are well educated on the matter. However, when elections are looming, no one wants to take a risk. Inflation was a major factor for the Congress’ loss at the Karnataka polls recently, where the opposition BJP won the elections, almost a majority in what is known to be a strong Congress State.

Similarly, food could become a critical issue for the government. While there are no protests yet on the streets, the rice prices are rising along with vegetable and pulse prices. There is no clear indication of how a steep rise in prices would be managed by the government, when supplies could become a constraint. India has a food surplus, so things may not deteriorate that badly. However, one cannot discount the fact that shelf prices have already started to affect the urban population which constitutes an important, if not decisive component of any election in India.

There is the free market way of doing things - the very “Western” and “IMF” prescription of just go and match world market prices. But, as we saw in several cases around the world, especially in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand, the IMF ways do not work on the ground. In populous countries like Indonesia, India, and China, apart from political compulsions, there is the matter of poverty and the ability to pay. One out of every 3 Indians subsists below or at the poverty level in India, which is roughly USD 1 to 2 per day. Food and Kerosene are very critical elements of their consumption, and if the government’s free-market approach determines the prices of these goods, the subsistence of over 300 million Indians would be at serious stake. Just think about it.

One can argue about the wastage in the Public Distribution System in India, the lack of efficiency in the Agricultural Infrastructure and Irrigation Systems, the poor condition of the transportation systems leading to high consumption of oil, etc., However, the fact remains that it would take several years with a concerted plan of action to improve all these things - quite a medium-term effect in the best of times, when a democracy has to grapple with coalition politics.

Poor people would need protection from rising prices faster, hence there is no better way than to subsidise oil and food prices. It is not that only India has to implement subsidies - in the U.S. who has not heard about “food bills” ? While like most “free-market” theorists, I am inclined to adopt market-friendly approaches to almost everything in life, it is difficult and impossible not to be able to forecast the deprivations of the poor people in the society. To do so, in a very “capitalistic” way, would distance oneself from the ground realities, and isolate the economics and make it irrelevant.

Well, this does not mean that the government of the day can’t do more to correct the price imbalances. There is a lot which can be done, and which are not being done in India. One is ofcourse, to reduce the dependence on oil by going the whole hog on Nuclear Power - I have written about this topic in the past. The share of nuclear power in India is miniscule, it should reach atleast 15 to 20% of total power generated in the next 10 to 15 years. And, that is possible only if the subject of power is delinked from petty politics. America has come with open arms to help India, having realised the challenges India faces in the matter of power. But, so far, India has not closed the deal and moved on into a new chapter - this is a matter of serious concern.

Government needs to also look at (a) increasing the pump prices of petrol/diesel, while keeping the kerosene price stable ; (b) impose a cess on automobile purchases ; (c) implement car pooling atleast in the metros ; (d) impose severe penalty on oil and food hoarders ; (e) drastically reduce the customs and excise duties on petroleum products ; (f) immediately investigate the leakages in the public distribution system ; and, (g) engage in a public communication exercise to advocate the criticality of reducing oil consumption.

Food has to be subsidised for the poor, there is no question about it, atleast for the next 6 months. All crises pass away eventually, so one could only hope that this crisis would also do so, and do so quickly. In the meantime, it is better to relook at socialist economics, for a change, after some 15 years !

Have a great weekend,

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
31 May 2008
Mumabi

Poverty in Megalopolis

Poverty reduction is like a mirage in India.

Especially, in cities with large population of migrants, it becomes very hard to consciously focus on poverty reduction programs, since these migrants were not planned for initially.

All major cities in India have had influx of migrants from the relatively poorer regions of the country. Mumbai, I guess, has had the maximum share of migrants from all over the country, being the centre of major economic activities. Mumbai is a melting pot of migrants, surely for the well-endowed ones as well. Due to the heavy concentration of financial institutions and large corporate headquarters in the City, it is to be expected anyway.

Economic migrants of the poorer variety ofcourse, dominate in terms of numbers. Given the strain on the land in Mumbai and the cost of real estate as a consequence, there is hardly any alternative for the poorer migrants to live, except on the roads ! Such a scenario can be seen in most places in Mumbai as one drives around, especially in the suburbs. The slums encroaching upon the Airport Authority’s land in Santacruz is stark evidence of the impact of the migration on Mumbai.

The other day I saw that police had removed the hutments of poor people living across the road from Hypercity, diagonally opposite to it. There was a clean pavement, though it was just above the dirty nulla, or stream of water with harmful effluents. I thought, Wow, these folks had the nerve to carry out such an operation !

Today, the migrants were back at exactly the same place, with all their belongings intact !!

I can only think of a failure of governance in terms of providing affordable low-cost housing to these migrants, who are necessary for the economic activities going on all around - construction, factory work, home support work, and a million other activities required to sustain the fast-growing economy - someone is needed for work which could not be done by the existing folks who are engaged at a higher level of economic engagement in society.

In a developed country, this situation partially exists, such as in America with migrant Mexican workers. In Singapore with its almost full employment, the economic imperative is different - work cannot be done by current population, and so import of talent of all kinds is required, planned and executed well by the government.

However, in India, the migration largely occurs within the country (though there are other country imports which are not checked at the borders with Bangladesh or Nepal, for example). Several states have a poorer quality of living, and a very low GDP per capita. People are unemployed, or are not able to find productive work which pays well. Their dream is, what else, “Mumbai” ! Or, “New Delhi”.

In a democratic country, it becomes difficult to stop such migration officially. In China, the government can, and does, stop migration into cities like Shanghai, at will. Brute power sometimes help. But, that would not be possible in most countries.

So, it comes finally to the government of the day to solve the problem of reducing the strain on land, transportation, food, et al, when large population of migrants needs to be catered to. The economy and society needs their services as well. A real Hobson’s Choice, I guess.

We all need to think through potential solutions for this major problem of the day.

Cheers, and Have a Good Weekend,

Vijay Srinivasan
26 April 2008
Mumbai

(Skype) Chat with God

Courtesy : Emmeline, an old colleague

God Pinged Me ……..

This is an excellent conversation between ‘God’ and the unknown ‘Me’.
I don’t know as to who has been the composer of such an interesting and captivating conversation ; but has he/she has definitely put in good amount of thought into crafting the same.

Those who don’t believe in God, may also find it worth reading once. Enjoy and Think !

God: Hello. Did you call me?
Me: Called you? No.. Who is this?

God: This is GOD. I heard your prayers. So I thought I will chat.
Me: I do pray. Just makes me feel good. I am actually busy now. I am in the midst of something.

God: What are you busy at? Ants are busy too.
Me: Don’t know. But I can’t find free time. Life has become hectic. It’s rush hour all the time.

God: Sure. Activity gets you busy. But productivity gets you results.
Activity consumes time. Productivity frees it.
Me: I understand. But I still can’t figure out. By the way, I was not expecting YOU to buzz me on instant messaging chat.

God: Well I wanted to resolve your fight for time, by giving you some clarity. In this net era, I wanted to reach you through the medium you are comfortable with.

Me: Tell me, why has life become complicated now?
God: Stop analyzing life. Just live it. Analysis is what makes it complicated.

Me: why are we then constantly unhappy?
God: Your today is the tomorrow that you worried about yesterday. You are worrying because you are analyzing. Worrying has become your habit. That’s why you are not happy.

Me: But how can we not worry when there is so much uncertainty?
God: Uncertainty is inevitable, but worrying is optional.

Me: But then, there is so much pain due to uncertainty. .
God: Pain is inevitable able, but suffering is optional.

Me: If suffering is optional, why do good people always suffer?
God: Diamond cannot be polished without friction. Gold cannot be purified without fire. Good people go through trials, but don’t suffer. With that experience their life become better not bitter.

Me: You mean to say such experience is useful?
God: Yes. In every term, Experience is a hard teacher. She gives the test first and the lessons afterwards.

Me: But still, why should we go through such tests? Why can’t we be free from problems?
God: Problems are Purposeful Roadblocks Offering Beneficial Lessons (to) Enhance Mental Strength. Inner strength comes from struggle and endurance, not when you are free from problems.

Me: Frankly in the midst of so many problems, we don’t know where we are heading..
God: If you look outside you will not know where you are heading. Look inside. Looking outside, you dream. Looking inside, you awaken. Eyes provide sight. Heart provides insight.

Me: Sometimes not succeeding fast seems to hurt more than moving in the right direction. What should I do?
God: Success is a measure as decided by others. Satisfaction is a measure as decided by you. Knowing the road ahead is more satisfying than knowing you road ahead. You work with the compass. Let others work with the clock.

Me: In tough times, how do you stay motivated?
God: Always look at how far you have come rather than how far you have to go. Always count your blessing, not what you are missing.

Me: What surprises you about people?
God: When they suffer they ask, “why me?” When they prosper, they never ask “Why me”. Everyone wishes to have truth on their side, but few want to be on the side of the truth.

Me: Sometimes I ask, who am I, why am I here. I can’t get the answer.
God: Seek not to find who you are, but to determine who you want to be. Stop looking for a purpose as to why you are here. Create it. Life is not merely a process of discovery but a process of co-creation. You are my co-creator.

Me: How can I get the best out of life?
God: Face your past without regret. Handle your present with confidence.
Prepare for the future without fear.

Me: One last question. Sometimes I feel my prayers are not answered.
God: There are no unanswered prayers. At times the answer is NO.

Me: Thank you for this wonderful chat.
God: Well. Keep the faith and drop the fear. Don’t believe your doubts and doubt your beliefs. Life is a mystery to solve not a problem to resolve. Trust me. Life is wonderful if you know how to live. “Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the moments that took our breath away!

Courtesy : Emmeline, an old colleague

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
27 Jan 2008
Mumbai

The Wily Dictator

It is not a least bit surprising that Pakistan declared emergency rule, actually a martial law yesterday. Nobody could have missed it coming, not the least the U.S. Government which always has had a ringside view of what’s going on in Pakistan, and what exactly is going to happen as well.

It is ironic that what is happening in Pakistan, while not good for its citizens and the country as such, is apparently good for the U.S., and may be even for India. This has been the case since 1999 when the general captured power in a bloodless coup from a democratically elected government. It is clear that the general brings stability to the region though not as effective lately as he was after 9/11. While he is driven by his perceived need for stability of Pakistan as a whole, it is also very evident that he is not convinced of the effectiveness of democracy in a country which is largely feudalistic in nature and riven by factionalism. Combined with the fundamentalist agendas of several leading factions and religious fanatics, it is not difficult to see what the general saw before declaring martial law.

Surely, this is not good for the democratic development of Pakistan which would now increasingly slide back into extremism that even the general population would support since they would now lose confidence that democracy would ever succeed in Pakistan. I had hopes when Mr Shauqat Aziz, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, was appointed. He was a successful Citibanker, and I thought that he would fix the general and ease him out using corporate warfare techniques. President Musharraf proved to be too wily for that, or Aziz bought into his vision for the future of Pakistan. Foreign investment poured in and the stock market was booming, but politicking and factionalism have always been the bane of the violent political scene of Pakistan.

India and even the U.S. are maintaining a studious silence, apart from mouthing some inanities. The U.S. government is selfish when it comes to defending its interests, and I am absolutely sure that it would continue to fund the dictator and his plans. There are many secret ways to fund and defy the U.S. Congress, and everything can be justified in the “Global War on Terror”. After all, U.S. has always declared that Pakistan is a “key ally” in the war on terror, and it cannot go back on that statement. Any stoppage of funding would ensure that Pakistan goes slow on the terror fight, which would be a threat.

From the Indian perspective, there is no one better than President Musharraf to rule Pakistan, ironically the same general who caused the embarrassing war of Kargil, in which hundreds of Indian armymen lost their lives and the surprise element caught the Indians totally unprepared. It appears very strange that India likes to deal only with Musharraf, but India constantly worries about the stability quotient in the region, and would not be in a position to deal with a fundamentalist president or prime minister who chooses to go back in time and history, rather than work out the future. The good outcome of the Kargil war was the enhanced cooperation with Israel and increased defence spending by the Indian government. However, something strange happened in the aftermath - there was pressure by the Americans towards a detente, and the general turned positive on India’s demands to stop infiltration by extremist elements across the Actual Line of Control. Ofcourse, the Israeli fencing helped enormously in the process.

Over the past couple of years, there have been many positive noises between India and Pakistan, and there was a possibility that the general would give up his uniform and would become a democratically elected president. That would have eased the conscience of both the Indians and the Americans.

Now, this slide into anarchy which started yesterday, is actually not good for anyone even in the short term. The United Nations should condemn the development, and the U.S. government should allow that - atleast it would be a proxy to what the U.S. State Department would have liked to state publicly apart from the mild noises made by the Secretary of State who has increasingly become ineffective. And, India should send a message to the general to follow the Indian democratic model which works even amidst chaos all around the country. Given that basically the peoples are the same between the two countries, the only issue is apparently the religious extremism and fundamentalism spawned by the Taliban. India often is at the receiving end of terrorist attacks, but has learnt to take quick actions in following through with the leads, and has further taken actions to stop future attacks on its soil. While on the overall scorecard India comes short on its speed of reaction, and proactive planning, the system is resilient enough to survive and adapt itself to the new demanding environment. Brute force is not the solution, as Americans are learning in a very costly manner both in Afghanistan and Iraq. Counter infiltration is one way, convincing the general population is another way. Both do not work for the Americans as is evident from the situation in Iraq - trust of the local population is key to rapproachement and building a mutually beneficial solution.

I do hope that phones have not stopped ringing in Islamabad though it is a Sunday.

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
4th November 2007
Mumbai

Spending on Education

I read today in the newspapers that Indian workers abroad sent in excess of USD 25B last year back home.

Unlike most other developing countries, this constitutes barely 3% of India’s GDP, and is just about equal to India’s defence budget this year. But the startling fact was that India spends not even one-fifth of this amount on education !

Educational standards in India are in a pathetic state, atleast in the government-run schooling system. There is too much focus on higher education to the total detriment of primary and secondary education. In fact, there has been a huge debate on IIMs (Indian Institutes of Management) and IITs (Indian Institutes of Technology) which together produce just about 3,000 undergraduates every year - Government of India spends lots of money on these folks who go on to earn hugely in the private corporate sector, or go abroad. IIMs made history in this year’s final placements, with top graduates getting in excess of USD 250,000 as salary with some investment banks, with even domestic salaries crossing Rs 1 Crore for the cream-de-la-cream. I believe these salaries are even better than what one can hope to get out of Harvard or Stanford business schools !

There has been more discussion on “reservation” of specific under-priviledged castes for these institutions, than on improving basic education which would cater to millions of students, during the past 12 months in India. Misplaced priorities and budgets, one should conclude ! One has to be cognizant of the millions of impoverished children who would never get to see the portals of an IIM or an IIT. Is anyone in the government thinking of these children ?

The best way to eliminate poverty in total would be for a government to provide for quality basic education. There has always been discrimination and poor/inadequate budgeting when it comes to primary education in India. Teachers are poorly paid, the infrastructure of government schools is very bad, and both the under-priviledged and economically disadvantaged classes face inequities when competing with the middle and upper-middle classes of the society. The issue is government of the day and of the yesteryears, never placed much importance on basic education. This has built an unequal society with social inequities which would eventually translate into societal tensions.

Some scholars argue that such problems in India somehow persist without tensions, and would eventually go away. I do not agree - that is not planning, that is hoping for the best. While communism will never take root in India, I am loathe to see wealth being talked up by newspapers almost every day - this would only mean the “wealthy” class gets a treatment by society very different from the average man. While that may be okay from the perspective of an armchair analyst, it may not be all right for a society with huge economic and digital divides spread all around the country.

In the United States, which also spends a hugely disproportionate amount on military budget (in excess of USD 500B this year), the basic necessities of society have been met long time ago and the infrastructure is in place. Further, Americans are known for their charitable bent of mind. Americans donate every day for almost every charitable cause, and philanthropy has become fashionable. Such actions help the society to get rid of any existing inequalities. Further, education has mostly been unshackled from the government. Government cannot do business anywhere properly, why leave education in its hands ? This initiative would require enormous funding, which is there in many developed economies. In developing economies, government professes that it can do a better job in addressing social inequalities and fix fundamental issues such as education, but I have not seen any one country doing a good job at it, except very small nations such as Singapore.

There is an urgent need for PPP (Public-Private-Partnership) in basic and secondary education in India. Government will never be able to balance its budget, and pay more for education, except an increase of may be 3 to 5% more annually. High-quality education at the primary level, and making it compulsory for all children, will go a long way in making a developed economic vision a reality and meeting the goals of an advanced society for social and economic equilibrium, with access being equal to all and one.

Time to think.

Cheers,

Vijay Srinivasan
20 October 2007
Mumbai

Maria Arbatova and Indian Husbands

It was funny reading the news reports that “The import of eligible bachelors from India is my big geopolitical idea” attributed to Maria Arbatova, a prominent television presenter and a leading Russian feminist author. India can be of help now that Russia has come to grips with its formidable demographic problem, she said.

She went on to say that Indians make the best husbands for Russian women as they are “more open” and share an emotional relationship with family.

The news coverage can be read at “Express India”

Maria Arbatova has been a non-conformist from a very young age, and I am not surprised to see her views. However, I disagree that Indian Husbands have unique advantage in familial bonding. I have met a variety of nationalities, especially during my stay at Singapore, and I beg to disagree with Maria’s views. At the end of the day, it is a very individual and personal choice. She seems to have made a choice now with an Indian partner, but that is after two failed partnerships. She might have seen the difference now, though !

In any case, it would be interesting to read her website and articles, see “Maria Arbatova”

Russian population is shrinking every day with a high death rate caused by unhealthy lifestyles - alcoholism compounded by suicide, and a very low birth rate. It is no wonder they are looking for “external” solutions. However, I also happened to read that Japan is planning to produce highly intelligent robots (they are already world leaders) which would take the place of its ageing population. It would be soon, may be in the next 25 years, when one would be greeted by an Immigration Robot at the Narita International Airport in Tokyo !

Have a wonderful week ahead,

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
16 September 2007
Mumbai

Photos from the Streets of Montreal

Some Photos from Montreal Visit. Not all, I took dozens.

RUE SAINT CATHERINE

DSC07055, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

The intersection of Rue Saint Catherine and Crescent Street - the main shopping thoroughfare of Montreal. Crescent Street is full of excellent eateries.

RITZ CARLTON MONTREAL

DSC07056, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

Ofcourse, I did not stay in this Hotel ! The Ritz Carlton on Sherbrooke won the best hotel in the world award a couple of years ago. It is located very close to McGill University.

SHOPPING IN MONTREAL

DSC07004, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

Again, Rue Saint Catherine ! Fabulous over-ground and under-ground shopping !! I bought a Nintendo DS Lite at the HMV Shop that you can see at the right corner, which was on sale.

THE MONTREAL MUSEUM OF FINE ARTS

DSC07050, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

The photograph looks all right, but I did not bother to go in, though entry was free for McGill parents. I have had a dose of fine art during my trip to Europe 3 months ago, I just wanted to walk the streets, meet people, and take some interesting photos !

SAINT JOSEPH’S ORATORY OF MONT ROYAL

DSC07088, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

Fabulous Church, with ornate work inside. Beautiful park outside. It is located on Queen Mary Road, an exclusive suburb of Montreal.

BEAUTIFUL PARK - SAINT JOSEPH’S ORATORY

DSC07092, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

This park is just in front of the Saint Joseph’s Oratory. Fabulous view from the Oratory which is located on a small hill.

SKYLINE OF MONTREAL FROM MONT ROYAL

DSC07099, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

This view is from the Mont Royal Hill. At a distance you can see the Olympic Stadium.

ANOTHER VIEW FROM MONT ROYAL

DSC07101, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

Just another skyline shot from a digital camera - you can’t expect too much, but nevertheless for an itinerant photographer it is too itchy not to shoot almost everything !

AVENUE DU PARC, MONTREAL

DSC07030, originally uploaded by vjsri99.

I crossed this building everyday walking up the Avenue du Parc, it was just too beautiful to miss. Avenue du Parc is a long road, and it took me 20 to 25 minutes every morning and evening to go from my hotel to the University and back. The good thing is the weather is not humid, though it was quite warm (more than 26 deg C).

Enjoy the pics and Have a Wonderful Weekend

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
9th Sep 2007
Mumbai

Schindler’s List and A Beautiful Life

I happened to see Schindler’s List again. I have always wanted to avoid seeing it again, but it so happened it was running on Star Movies channel and I just chanced upon it. The movie is so riveting it is difficult to switch the channels.

Without going into a detailed commentary on the movie, I can only say it touches everyone’s heart, mind and soul. The sheer brutality of the German soldiers and the manner in which the stoic Jews deal with the same, and the methods of Schindler to save them in ingenious ways, reminds one simultaneously of the animal within men and the heart of one hero who found ways to help the Jews from their deprivation.

That such a thing like that happened just over 6 decades ago in this world is a strong reminder to the people who inhabit this earth that the worst enemies of mankind are from within. There was no god who would have allowed such an insult to humans who were just ordinary folks carrying on their lives. The racial profiling that was used then is in use around the world in today’s divided world. It may not lead to killings and treatment as brutal as the Germans inflicted on the Jews, but nevertheless it is something to constantly worry about. The automatic implication of Dr Haneef in Australia without proof of any serious kind is just another example. One can imagine what would have happened if Dr Haneef was implicated in the U.S. He would have been in Guantanamao Bay prison by now. My faith in the British Commonwealth rule of law played out well in this case - without evidence, Australia released Dr Haneef. I do not agree however with the cancellation of his visa which now appears to be without basis - Australian Government just wants him out I guess. But, on what basis ?

The other movie, “A Beautiful Life” is again a wonderful movie of an ever-optimistic soul who was jailed by the Germans. Amazing power of faith again !

It is sometimes wonderful to see these older movies instead of the Bollywood junk movies. There is not even one movie comparable to these American movies coming from anywhere in India. Again the last Hindi movie that I really enjoyed was “Black” followed by “Parineeta”. There has been a drought ever since (more than 18 months). However what you see all around is the rage of Bollywood. Even the U.K. is under complete siege by Bollywood, especially of the likes of Shilpa Shetty !

Well, the bigger message is of the beast within men - even if one soul is unjustly eliminated from the face of this earth, the perpetrators - whether they are state or non-state actors - would have to bear the consequences sometimes in the future. One can argue that a Germany or Japan (famous for massacres as well - the Nanjing massacre in China of thousands of Chinese early in the last century and crimes committed in the second world war) did not suffer from economics - they both rose like a phoenix from their respective ashes and became economic superpowers ultimately. So, where is the question of any punishment ? I am here referring to the individuals involved in war crimes rather than the governments - they would have paid their dues whether they believed in god or not. One has to pay for crimes committed in life - especially when that crime involves taking away the lives of non-combatants - the phrase made famous by George W Bush in his war against terrorism. I would argue that the term is comparable to the plight of the Jews in the hands of the Germans or that of the Chinese in the hands of the Japanese. These were simple people who were murdered brutally by the occupation forces, despite their non-involvement in the war(s).

I am reading more stuff on all this……..very absorbing and revealing.

Have a wonderful weekend,

Cheers

Vijay Srinivasan
28th July 2007
Mumbai