Apparently it looks like Mr Modi is sweeping India.

But what see could turn out to be deceptive.

The Federal (or Central) Elections are scheduled for April / May 2014 in India. It is the largest democratic exercise in the transformation of power anywhere in the world.

It is also an exercise in which no one can predict what is going to happen.

The UPA Alliance which has ruled India for the past decade is jittery.

People everywhere are clamouring for change and an anti-incumbency wave could sweep the UPA and along with it, the dominant Congress Party, which is the lead partner of the UPA Alliance.

May be that would be good for India.

But what is not going to be good for India is when we get a “hung” Parliament with no clear majority, leading to horse trading. The newly elected Members of Parliament could trade in their seats for money.

My expectation is that no party is going to get the 270+ seats required for an absolute majority in the Parliament. Not the UPA Alliance, not the BJP Party which is now being led by Mr Modi.

It is eventually going to be some kind of alliance of not so much of “allied” parties, but of parties which come together for the mandate of forming the government and the convenience and ease of making money.

So India is going to get into some kind of trouble in the aftermath of the elections. Government formation in the world’s largest democracy is never easy and it is going to be very difficult in the forthcoming elections.

This is despite the fact that people want a change.

How Mr Modi is able to solidify his apparently strong edge in the coming days and months will determine BJP Party’s negotiating power.

I believe that irrespective of which Party or Alliance comes to power in the next elections, money politics and corruption are here to stay in the country. Democracy is not without its shortfalls as has been repeatedly proven in most democracies around the world, and especially so in the Indian context over the past six decades.


Vijay Srinivasan
9th November 2013


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