Emergence of new belligerence

There is a brand new bellicose ally in Asia.

Who else could it be ? You guessed wrong, it is not North Korea as it was never an “ally” to anyone.

Is it Japan ? No, while Japan was a tough adversary during WWII, it no longer has the teeth necessary to be an enemy to any country.

It is……….yes, it is CHINA.

China learns from what the other global powers do – especially the U.S. and it has started to practice some of it rather quickly, in the aftermath of its skirmishes with Japan and other East Asian countries.

Its latest venture – “an air defence zone” which covers a large swath of the East China Sea. Any non-commercial plane will have to identify itself to Chinese military regarding its purpose of being in that zone.

Japan is not going to respect the legality of this zone, for sure, and that is going to lead to some kind of skirmish in the very near future.

Are we heading into an era of military instability in Asia ? It appears to be so, as China emerges to be the assertive, belligerent power in Asia. And, it is likely to run into trouble with the U.S. as well.

Given that Japan and the U.S. are allies, it is going to be very difficult for the U.S. to stay away from a potential conflict between Japan and China.

It is going to be interesting to see how China enforces its own version of the military no-fly zone over South China Sea. It is going to be dangerous for everyone involved in maritime and navigational activities in that zone. And, it is likely to be challenged repeatedly in the coming days.

Let us see !


Vijay Srinivasan
24th November 2013


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