Imagine a breakout of a tactical war between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine, or the Baltic States. This does not seem to be that improbable, as it looked even a few months ago (no one was anyway thinking of such a war a few months ago !).
Who is going to suffer ?
It will be, undoubtedly, Europe – the “Western part” of Europe.
Since in conventional terms, the U.S. and NATO forces will easily outnumber the Russian Armed Forces, Russia will be compelled to use small tactical nuclear weapons in such a war. Neither Russia nor the U.S. has a ‘No First Use Policy on Nuclear Weapons use”, and the U.S. may not have much choice but to escalate with a proportionate retaliation.
You can already hear the sounds of the ICBMs getting ready for a long-range war, and you can also hear the U.S. ships moving closer to the Russian coastline in the Black Sea (rather, the Crimean coastline !) setting up their Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield.
Would you like such an eventuality ?
Would anyone with a sober and sane mind in this world relish such an outbreak of a war between the two most powerful nations on this planet ?
The result: Destruction all around, and a Third World War with no conceivable end.
And, the most affected continent: again, it will be Europe.
Apart from the Germans, is any other country thinking of such possibilities ?
Poland does not seem to understand the consequences of inviting the U.S. Army to send in 10,000 soldiers into its territory, squarely facing off the Russian Army.
While nobody is advocating fear as the way out towards a potential settlement with Russia, I do not think everyone understands the consequences of angering Russia which is now surrounded by NATO allies who were erstwhile Soviet Republics, or under Soviet occupation.
How would the U.S. react if Cuba has Russian ICBMs ? We know how the U.S. handled that situation 5 decades ago.
It is no wonder Russia is reacting the way it has been, as it is the country which is most afraid today. Think about it. Vastly outnumbered in conventional forces, and in the process of getting crippled by economic sanctions imposed by the West, what choice Russia has today ?
It has to leverage Ukraine as a shield. It has to send an unequivocal message to the West, which it already did with the quick annexation of Crimea.
So, my advice to Europe/NATO and to the U.S. is – take the pressure off the pedal. Have a summit with President Vladimir Putin. He is scared, he is feeling weak. His pride is seriously hurt by the “surround and scare” strategy of the West. He has been ignored by the West for long. The West has only used Russia to reach some settlements in Syria, Iran, etc.,
Think for some time.
You will inevitably reach the same conclusions.
19th April 2014