The Nuclear Deal

I thought it is appropriate to blog about the impending nuclear deal between Iran and the P5 + 1 powers (the + 1 refers to Germany), simply because it has seized the headlines for the past several weeks, and has been ongoing for more than a year.

It appears that the “world powers” managed to secure a “framework agreement” with Iran after very tough negotiations, and the beauty is that both sides appear to think that they have got a good deal – a sign of good negotiation in action. That is a “win-win” deal for both sides.

For the rest of the world, the deal is very important for several reasons. The main reason is that the world and the middle east cannot afford another war and thousands of civilian casualties, just because the world is forced to think that Iran has dangerous nuclear ambitions. It will be another unmitigated disaster for the Iranians and surrounding countries, which should best be avoided at all costs. The other reason is the price of oil. All of us are aware of the significant benefits of a reduced oil price, which is roughly half of what it was just six months ago. A middle east war would trigger a rapid rise in the price of oil, causing inflation to spike all around. Yet another reason is that any war would be considered as a complete failure of diplomacy – and in future, there will be no negotiations. If somebody does things his own way, there will be a war as a result. This is why it is so critical to evaluate global agreements thoroughly before signing the same and having the country’s parliament or congress approve the same. Once that is done, a country is bound by global terms and conditions. If India, Pakistan, Israel and a few other countries who did not sign the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, had made the mistake of signing the same, they would have also been subjected to excruciating deals like the one which is going on with Iran.

In any case, signing of the final deal by June would be a great achievement for all sides, and Iran can then proceed with its economic development sans the sanctions regime, and get on with the business of improving the livelihood of its citizens who have suffered for too long. Iran should agree finally, of course, and I think they would if the P5 +1 powers negotiate well.

All the best to all the parties involved !


Vijay Srinivasan

11th April 2015


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