If there is a people-driven revolution in any autocratic country, that is a good sign. After all, the legitimacy of even a theocratic state is based on the support of its citizens. There is no god-given authority to any human to rule over his or her “subjects” – such anachronisms continue to damage the real strength of people even in democratic nations such as England. I had recently written about The Republic of England.
The people revolution that is occurring in Iran is a good example of how the citizens of a country can protest, in a non-violent manner, against the social and economic conditions afflicting them. There is actually no real explanation that the Iranian Government can provide, except to flex its police and military muscle. Such things happen even in purely democratic, non-theocratic, non-autocratic nations of the world.
Iran is a special case however. The 1979 people revolution comes to mind, when thousands of protesters took to the streets against the Shah of Iran and the U.S. Government’s intervention in Iranian affiars (the U.S. is very famous for interfering and intervening in the affairs of almost all countries under a coordinated C.I.A. strategy over the past 7 decades). The Shah of Iran was overthrown, and the protesters took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran holding hundreds of hostages.
So, Iran is not immune to civilian and student protests. It is a well-developed country, with a social development and people maturity comparable to many Western nations. The theocratic approach to governing what is the most advanced country in the Middle East has resulted in serious skirmishes with the U.S. which does not, obviously, like to deal with religious figures and considers political figures as too weak to negotiate.
After couple of false starts, here comes another chance for the long-suffering Iranians to assert their human rights, not as stooges of the U.S. or any other Western country, but as rightful owners of their own proud country whose history dates back thousands of years of enlightened civilization and growth. Of course, they are going to be repressed by the police and military in a brutal fashion, which is happening now. More than 20 civilians have been killed in the protests over the last week or so, and hundreds are incarcerated with potential, nay, guaranteed torture in unknown jails or locations.
The human spirit is so strong that it cannot be repressed for too long. We have seen that consistently over many centuries, and that revelation is irrespective of the country, ethnicity, religion or war. It always comes back to assert its superiority over the mundane affairs which holds it back for many years.
In the case of Iran, the U.S. would do well not to interfere. The Iranians know the pitfalls of “external” interference which would quickly be translated as “foreign support” for the protesters by the Government and the military. While President Trump and the U.N.S.C. Permanent Representative Nikki Haley relish the “big” opportunity to hit back at Iran and extend their unequivocal support for the Iranian citizens, and even call for an emergency session of the Security Council, all these actions and tweets are being interpreted in a rather different manner by the folks who run the religion, the government and the military of Iran. It is not going to be easy to seek a regime change, which has always been the single most important objective of the U.S. despite its ardent denials. The people of Iran have to do what it takes to secure a more positive outcome for themselves and their country without any external help, and that is going to take a lot of sacrifice and time.
In a nutshell, the Iranian people protests again prove that social and economic challenges are more important to people than politics and conflicts and wars. It is irrelevant to them if Iran wins over Yemen or Lebanon, or scores a political victory over Saudi Arabia in its conflict with Qatar. How does that matter to Iranians at the end of the day? Economy is suffering in what could be the most dynamic Middle Eastern country of all for the past nearly 4 decades – even better and stronger than Saudi Arabia. Iran needs to work with other democracies to deliver better results to its own people instead of securing just propaganda wins. If the U.S. continues to impose more severe sanctions against Iran, it is only a question of time before there is an economic collapse or there is a war instigated by one of these countries on some pretext or the other.
Given that the U.S. under President Trump is not going to be nice towards Iran, and would make all attempts to prevent the other top Western nations such as the U.K., England, France and Germany from developing a partnership with Iran in any economic sphere, there is no choice left for Iran. Except to work more closely with Russia and China.
At the end of the day, Iran has to drop its territorial ambitions, drop its political and military interventions/support in other Middle Eastern countries, strictly adhere to the nuclear deal signed in 2015, restrain its ballistic missile testing, and fall in line with the expectations of the world community (not necessarily that of the U.S.). For achieving this, it has to work real hard with the U.N. and few large countries in a deliberate and well-articulated manner over the next couple of years.
That would be the best way to eliminate the potential for a damaging war with the U.S., vastly reduce the economic misery of its people, and realize its scientific and technological ambitions to be a real world leader (the only one from the Middle East, apart from Israel).
Now is the time to do it, without giving further cause to more people revolutions – if nothing is done, something similar to the takeover of the U.S. Embassy is likely to recur.
Cheers to the Iranian people,
06 January 2018