When I look at the continuous drama going on in Washington, D.C., I cannot but fail to appreciate the unusual nature of the White House incumbent. Never before had there been a President of the U.S. who has flouted all public norms of decency, all diplomatic protocols, all trade agreements, and whatever has so far formed the foundations of American Democracy.
Some of the President’s, sorry, most of his actions border on incredulity, what else can I say? It is simply unbelievable that so many things that the President says are things which have never been stated publicly (I am including his tweets, obviously). America is changing dramatically during this Presidency, and the America which will exit at the end of this Presidency is going to be vastly different from the one that existed in 2016.
Of course, I am not going to fault this President for some of his “actions”, which are apparently what he promised to the electorate and let us not forget that he got elected via a public election process in the U.S. One cannot hide behind the fact that Hillary Clinton won 3M more public votes than Donald Trump, that is not the way the U.S. Electoral System works.
Let us see what President Trump has accomplished in the past 18 months:
- The first ever major Tax Reform signed in 30 years
- Lowest unemployment in 20 years
- GDP rapidly growing at over 3%
- More than USD 5T wealth created
There are many actions that President Trump took which have put fear into the most important trading partners of the U.S., such as Canada, Mexico, the U.K., the E.U., China, and India. His “America First” philosophy is now deeply ingrained in the psyche of the U.S. public, and in fact, in most countries around the world.
There are many negatives spawned by President Trump which have impacted the world in the wrong manner, and he is facing several personal scandals as we all know well. The “fake news” media (his term for the mainstream media comprising of liberal news channels and publications) have kept all of us very well informed. I look at Fox News everyday to see how is their version of the news unfolding, and the dichotomy is greatly interesting.
Coming back to my rationale for writing this blog post (I think this is my fourth post on Trump), I cannot disagree on his economic or trade initiatives. I will not cover his immigration and border security initiatives in this post. It requires an American President made up of an entirely different fabric to contest the long-held notions on free trade. But I think he is executing his trade strategy brilliantly, while the U.S. economy is chugging along well and wage growth has started trickling in. The U.S. is the biggest buyer of most goods in the world, and runs a big trade deficit with most large countries, which is simply untenable. I cannot understand why trade parity is so difficult to accomplish – it need not even balance entirely, what the U.S. wants is some kind of parity – not a very lopsided one such as the one it has with China. The U.S. cannot be importing over USD 500B of goods from China, while exporting just around USD 130B to China – highly untenable.
It has become very difficult to gauge President Trump and forecast his next action plan. It is apparent that most of his ideas are actually stemming from his brain, as he hardly trusts his own cabinet. He has seen a continuous exit of his cabinet team members who could not see eye to eye with him on apparently random ideas or actions. It is also very clear that President Trump does not like to wait to take action on his random ideas – he wants almost immediate action. If the Congress does not play along, he will even go to the extent of threatening his own party members!
So, the world is in for a continuous random adhoc ride the likes of which it has never experienced. I am now almost sure that President Trump is going to be re-elected, simply because there is no other contender from his own party, and the Democratic Party is in a state of disarray with no strong personality emerging with less than 18 months to go for campaigning to start for the 2020 Presidential Elections.
Who will the U.S. public go with? A guy who has delivered on his economic and trade promises, though he has misjudged on many other initiatives, and plagued by sleazy scandals? Or, a relatively unknown candidate who is yet to be tested though he might bring new ideas to the table? The jury may be out, but it is my considered guess that President Trump will win a second term, at the end of which the U.S. will be an unassailable economic and military power, though not liked around the world for its exclusivity in global affairs.
If I were an American citizen, my vote will have to be cast for President Trump. There is not much to argue against such a vote as I stand to benefit in a variety of ways – lower taxes, better wages, more economic growth potential, and more demand for American goods.
If I am an Indian or Chinese citizen, my vote will obviously go against President Trump. I would like a pro-trade, pro-immigration candidate.
If I am Singaporean, I may not give a damn, though an inner voice is asking me to stay involved with the U.S. – but, it is not a choice I have, and as a small nation, it is better to manage the middle ground extremely well. There is no point in rocking an already shaky boat. We realize the world is forever, unstable, and it is our duty to demonstrate rationality in decision-making.
That’s it folks, have a great week ahead,
23rd September 2018